Recessions in Europe and North Americaunresolved conflicts and energy security issues will pose a lingering economic and geopolitical risk next year
NEW YORK, November 22, 2022 /PRNewswire/ — The COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine war has profoundly reshaped global structures and relationships in 2022, and will continue to generate additional uncertainty in the year ahead, according to a new S&P Global Market Intelligence report, A global rebalancingpublished today.
The report highlights the five overarching themes guiding global political and economic relations in 2023: the unstable global security environment, energy security and energy transition, the continued disruption of global supply chains, the reshaping of markets labor and economic divergence.
“Upcoming tests are interconnected and have a significant business impact,” said dr. Lindsay NewmanHead of Thought Leadership in Geopolitics at S&P Global Market Intelligence. “As governments, civil society and multilateral institutions adjust to what appears to be a new era of uncertainty and instability, businesses and markets will also grapple with sanctions, increased protectionism, government interventions, alternative payment systems and reputational risk.”
S&P Global Market Intelligence identifies the top five global geopolitical and macroeconomic themes:
- A number of unresolved conflicts, including Russia–Ukrainewill be sources of lingering risk in 2023, impacting the global economic outlook. The invasion of Ukraine has accelerated a confrontation with a host of global security risks to be grappled with in 2023. The economic and security spheres will become increasingly intertwined in 2023 and beyond, as countries use financial levers, including tariffs, export restrictions and sanctions to advance national security priorities.
- With energy security back at the top of the agenda Russia invasion of Ukrainecountries will balance fiscal priorities for 2023 with renewed momentum to accelerate their energy transitions. In the coming year, energy security will remain high on the agenda, leaving countries to balance pressing resource priorities, such as food and energy, with their energy ambitions. matter of energy transition.
- An expected easing of supply chain disruptions in the first half of 2023 remains vulnerable to labor and resource shortages, including critical technologies and essential minerals. As the acute shock of the COVID-19 virus pandemic fades, and amid cost of living and recessionary concerns, we expect a relative easing of supply chain disruptions during the first half of 2023.
- Labor markets are in transition as demand outstrips supply, tilting power and income shares towards workers in key markets. Labor market tensions in major markets are expected to persist, but ease slightly as recessions take hold in 2023, with any slowdown in wage growth expected to be limited.
- The risk environment will continue to support the economic outlook for 2023. Recessions now look likely in Europe and North Americawhile Asia Pacific (APAC) and other emerging markets should avoid recession.
To request a copy of the A report on global rebalancingplease contact [email protected].
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